This video was posted to Gold Derby on June 25th as “Possible Emmy Longshots and Upsets”.
A version of this article was published to Gold Derby on June 8th as “Get Ready for Shockers on Emmy Ballot on Monday”.
Almost as much fun as finding out on July 18th who got nominated for Emmys is finding out who even got submitted for consideration, which will be possible after 6:00 Pacific time this Monday on June 10th when nominating ballots are posted to the academy website and voting commences. What is submitted and what is not can be surprising and has sparked scandals. Of course, they also shape predictions and may lead to what appear to be surprising snubs and inclusions to someone who only sees the final list of nominees. Here are some things to look out for on the ballot and to consider when making predictions:
Surprising omissions: A poster in the Gold Derby forums discovered in 2008 that Katherine Heigl was missing from the ballot, despite having won the year before. Asked to comment, Heigl infamously blasted the recent quality of her series Grey’s Anatomy and said that it did not warrant recognition. Others have been more graceful in bowing out. Terry O’Quinn would have been a strong contender for a second drama supporting actor win, given that he had an episode with a suicide attempt, but he stated that he wished to give others a chance in 2009. His Lost co-star Michael Emerson prevailed in his absence.
Treatment of cancelled shows: Networks vary as to how they treat shows that failed in the ratings. Some have successfully campaigned for nominations, like NBC did for Harry’s Law lead actress Kathy Bates last year. Others ignore their cancelled shows, even if they had past successes with the Emmys: Pushing Daisies won three Emmys and received twelve total nominations in 2008; when it was cancelled, ABC did not even submit its lead actor Lee Pace, who had been nominated the year before. Pace paid his own entrance fee to appear on the ballot, but was hopeless for a repeat nomination without a proper campaign. Lately, the networks have gotten crafty with how they submit their failed series. Last year, ABC surprised ballot-readers by submitting a number of its ill-fated shows under the “miniseries” label, which has become increasingly lax about what qualifies as such in recent years. This savvy cheat paid off with a nomination for Ashley Judd as lead actress of the short-lived Missing.
One performer, multiple roles: There is generally a rule that a contender can only make one submission per category. This meant that character actors who guest starred in multiple series would have to choose one to submit. Most assumed that 2008 Emmy winner Željko Ivanek from Damages would be nominated for an extended House episode in which he played a hospital shooter, but when ballots came out in 2009, it was revealed that Ivanek had instead opted to submit his recurring role on the critically reviled Heroes and he was not nominated. Recently, the Emmys altered their rules to allow multiple roles. Jon Hamm was an early frontrunner to win comedy guest actor in 2010 for having hosted Saturday Night Live; not forced to choose between it and a two-minute cameo in 30 Rock, reprising an Emmy-nominated role, he submitted both. Voters lazily nominated him only for the one that they had before and he lost.
Too many submissions: Submitting to the Emmys can be incredibly strategic. Praised aspects of popular series, like the cinematography on Game of Thrones, can go overlooked for years if their studios do not play it smart on the ballot. In 2009, The Office submitted about a dozen episodes for best writing—one for each of its staff—a strategy that had yielded nominations in years prior. But support for the 2006 comedy series winner was waning and submitting a dozen episodes split their votes a dozen ways. By submitting just one episode in the writing category instead of up to the five that it could have, Flight of the Conchords pooled all of its support, such that The Office likely got more votes in the category overall, but fewer votes for each of its episodes than that one Flight of the Conchords, which got nominated over The Office. Some series are popular enough that they can afford to submit seven episodes and still receive multiple nominations, like Mad Men in the writing category, while others like Breaking Bad are obviously popular among the academy, but not quite enough to be splitting their votes so many ways.
Pictures: Actors have the option of submitting a picture along with their name. Some opt for studio portraits, others for humorous in-character head shots, while others still sneak in pictures that are a decade old. For years, Mad Men‘s Elisabeth Moss appeared on the ballot in a seductive pose with a naked shoulder. When on-the-cusp contenders forget to submit a picture, Gold Derby users also like to reference that when dismissing their nomination chances.